Tag Archives: Housing Starts

Builder confidence fell again in October but remained north of neutral, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported Wednesday in its Housing Market Index (HMI) report. Despite declining for the second straight month, the index has hovered above the neutral mark for five consecutive months now, and NAHB reports seeing signs of pent-up demand in many markets across the country. Furthermore, the association believes October's drop represents a temporary blip.

Though recent reports seem to indicate a hitch in the ongoing housing recovery, Fitch Ratings maintains its expectations of a healthy increase in housing metrics through this year and the next. "As we have noted previously, recovery in the housing market will likely occur in fits and starts and housing absolute numbers are still low relative to past cycles," the company said in its latest analysis. "Expansion should not be expected as a total slope upward, as there are a number of variables that intervene."

In a blog for the company, Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko posits his own theory for why new construction is moving so slowly.

Led by the strongest gain for single-family construction this, year, the pace of housing starts edged up 0.9 percent in August, the Census Bureau and HUD reported Wednesday. Builders broke ground in August on new homes at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 891,000--up from a revised 883,000 in July--and filed for permits at the seasonally adjusted annual rate of 918,000, down from 954,000 in July. The gain in both single-family permits and starts came amid signs of improving builder confidence.

Even as housing inventory starts to recover, the basic fundamentals of supply and demand--as measured by new starts versus job growth across the nation--point to continued price growth, according to one expert at John Burns Real Estate Consulting. Nationally, the employment growth-to-permit (E/P) ratio is 2.5, up from 2.3 last year and well above the "equilibrium level" of 1.2. Eighteen of the top 20 markets have an E/P ratio higher than the equilibrium.

While price gains may paint a picture of a recovery well on its way, construction figures aren't as encouraging, according to an analysis from Trulia. While prices are up 11 percent year-over-year in August, according to Trulia, which monitors list prices, construction activity is lagging. Additionally, when it comes to price gains and increases in construction, markets tend to be experiencing one or the other, with markets reporting price growth seeing meager construction.

As the market trudges toward recovery, housing starts remain depressed due to a shortage of vacant lots, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB).

Residential construction spending edged up in July, according to numbers from the Census Bureau. Overall, construction spending was at a seasonally adjusted annual pace of $900.8 billion in July, 0.6 percent above June's revised estimate of $895.7 billion and 5.2 percent ahead of July 2012's $856.3 billion. Spending on residential construction was at a pace of $340.6 billion, up 0.5 percent from June and 16.8 percent from July 2012.

Led by multifamily activity, new housing permits and starts rose in July with new construction, continuing a shift from single-family homes.

Despite lackluster performance from the economic sector, the housing recovery will press on and stimulate overall growth, according to Freddie Mac's most recent economic and housing outlook.