Tag Archives: Housing Starts

Homebuilding across the country lifted slightly in March but still fell short of expectations, while permits for new housing tumbled. According to figures released Wednesday by the Census Bureau and HUD, March housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 946,000, 2.8 percent above February’s revised estimate but below a consensus forecast of 970,000 predicted in a survey of economists.

Recovery in the housing market is stumbling back to solid ground, thanks to a rise in home prices and existing home sales, as well as a drop in foreclosures, according to the latest Housing Barometer report released Wednesday by Trulia. However, growth in these sectors is dragging disproportionally weaker growth in young adult employment and stagnation in the new home construction sector in its wake.

Following a slowdown in activity over the previous two quarters, Fannie Mae’s Economic & Strategic Research Group expects economic activity to pick up in the second quarter of this year, bolstered by increases in the housing sector, consumer spending, and business investment. The housing market is expected to show a relatively strong performance, with housing starts increasing almost 20 percent to 1.1 million over the year.

Freddie Mac’s weekly Primary Mortgage Market Survey, released Thursday, showed the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaging 4.32 percent (0.6 point) for the week ending March 20, down from last week, when it averaged 4.37 percent. A year ago, the 30-year FRM average was 3.54 percent. Since falling from 4.53 percent in 2014’s first weeks, the 30-year fixed average has seen limited movements since, staying in the 4.2-4.3 percent range.

According to numbers from the Census Bureau and HUD, privately owned housing starts in February were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 907,000, down 0.2 percent from January’s revised estimate of 909,000 and 6.4 percent below the February 2013 rate of 969,000. On just the single-family side, builders started work last month at a rate of 583,000 homes per year, 0.3 percent above January’s revised figure.

Fannie Mae released its latest economic forecast, which acknowledged that atypically harsh winter weather in much of the United States has slowed new home construction and sales in Q1 2014. But the report also reaffirms Fannie Mae's position that the economy and housing markets will improve on 2013 growth by the end of the year's fourth quarter.

The Census and HUD announced jointly Wednesday that housing starts in January ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 880,000, a 16 percent decline from December. The drop in starts came during a month in which homebuilder confidence in the single-family market (as measured by the National Association of Home Builders) measured at an index value of 57, reflecting general optimism.

As the year kicks off to a mediocre start for housing, two camps have emerged: those who say trends indicate a sour turn for the market, and those who are more apt to dismiss the worst news as an effect of the last few months’ harsh weather. With major reports on construction and sales data on the way, Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko looked at historical patterns to determine—how much has the weather really influenced housing numbers?

The National Association of Home Builders’ (NAHB) Housing Market Index (HMI), released in partnership with Wells Fargo, posted a 10-point decline to 46 in the group’s latest report. It was the first time since May 2013 that the index measured below 50, the “neutral” point between a market viewed as “good” or “bad.” All four regions reported declines in confidence, with losses ranging from seven points in the South to 14 points in the West.

Global economic growth will increase from 2.5 percent this year to 3.3 percent in the new year, with the U.S. economy growing 2.6 percent, up from 1.7 percent this year, according to IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh and IHS Chief U.S. Economist Doug Handler. Europe's recovery "will proceed, but at a very sluggish pace," with growth reaching 0.8 percent, up from -0.4 percent this year. Meanwhile, the dollar will gain strength as the Fed tapers its stimulus while other central banks continue theirs, according to IHS.