Tag Archives: IHS Global Insight

The U.S. economy experienced a sharp turnaround from the first quarter to the second, fueling hopes of a rebound as the rest of the year plays out. Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 4.0 percent in the second quarter of the year, according to an advance estimate released by the Commerce Department. Growth came in at the high end of a survey of economists, with the consensus forecast calling for an increase of 3.1 percent.

According to a joint report from HUD and the Census Bureau, groundbreaking on new homes was at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 893,000, a drop of 9.3 percent below May's revised annual rate of 985,000. Declines came on both sides of the market: Single-family starts came to a rate of 575,000, down 9.0 percent, according to the report, while multifamily starts fell 9.9 percent to a 318,000 rate.

In its third and final estimate of first-quarter growth, the Department of Commerce recorded an annualized 2.9 percent decline in GDP throughout the year's first months. While analysts expected GDP growth to shrink further following the last estimate of a 1.0 percent decline, the reported number represents a sharper downturn than the 1.8 percent contraction that had been forecast.

Sales of new single-family homes blew past all expectations in May even as prices and inventory continued to present a challenge. According to figures released Tuesday by the Census Bureau, new home sales last month were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 504,000, representing an 18.6 percent spike above April's downwardly revised rate of 425,000.

The University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters Index of Consumer Sentiment slipped to 79.9 in a preliminary March report after finishing February at 81.6. A consensus forecast from economists surveyed by Bloomberg projected a slight climb to 81.8. Even with the latest decline, “[c]onsumer sentiment has been weathering the winter rather well,” said Chris Christopher, director of consumer economics for IHS Global Insight.

Global economic growth will increase from 2.5 percent this year to 3.3 percent in the new year, with the U.S. economy growing 2.6 percent, up from 1.7 percent this year, according to IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh and IHS Chief U.S. Economist Doug Handler. Europe's recovery "will proceed, but at a very sluggish pace," with growth reaching 0.8 percent, up from -0.4 percent this year. Meanwhile, the dollar will gain strength as the Fed tapers its stimulus while other central banks continue theirs, according to IHS.

The national unemployment rate sank from 7.3 percent to 7.0 percent in November, with 203,000 new jobs added to employer payrolls, the U.S. Department of Labor reported Friday.

Following S&P's calculation of a 0.1 percent decrease in prices in November, analysis on home price data remained positive.

Last week's jobs report contained some good news with the bad, but analysts doubt there's enough to influence the presidential election.

A still-brittle economic recovery picked up steam in January as the private sector added 243,000 jobs, driving unemployment figures to lows not seen in three years. The Labor Department said that the national unemployment rate fell to 8.3 percent, also signaling a fifth straight month for declines in the number of jobless Americans. Construction added 21,000 jobs from December, with gains for nonresidential construction and specialty trade contractors. Financial services lost some 5,000 jobs from last month by comparison.