Tag Archives: Trulia

Market trends across the United States indicate a recovering real estate market—but not a bubble—according to the latest Home Value Forecast from Pro Teck Valuation Services. According to the forecast, the housing economy is in healthy rebound, so much so that even the markets showing the greatest appreciation are not near 2006 figures, when the market was at its historical peak.

According to Trulia, asking prices on listed homes rose 1.2 percent month-to-month in June, the highest monthly increase in more than a year. Unfortunately, consumer incomes have failed to keep pace. Out of the top 10 markets for annual price gains in June—most of which were in the South or Midwest—Trulia found that wages per worker rose less than 1 percent last year in all but one.

In its latest barometer report, Trulia says new construction starts, existing-home sales and delinquency and foreclosure rates have all come closer to normalizing over the last quarter. One factor still hampering the recovery, however, is the unemployment rate among Millennials—a key group for household formation and first-time homeownership.

While persistent price gains continue to dominate headlines, homes in a majority of major markets across the country remain slightly undervalued, quashing any concerns of a rising bubble, according to the latest data from Trulia. Nationally, homes remain undervalued by 3 percent compared with long-term fundamentals, according to Trulia's Bubble Watch.

According to Trulia, for the first time since July 2012, none of the 100 largest markets in May—anywhere in the United States—saw home prices rise more than 20 percent year-over-year. This is the first sign of sustainability in the housing market in years and is, according to Trulia' chief economist, Jed Kolko, a welcome change from the hyper-rebounding that occurred in some markets, particularly in the West.

In a recent blog post for the company, Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko notes that certain discrepancies do arise, specifically along the coasts, for middle-class homeownership. Kolko found that the middle class is getting priced out of California but finds more success in the Midwest. In fact, in 80 of the 100 largest U.S. metros, most of the homes for sale are within reach of the middle class.

Home asking prices rose just 9.0 percent year-over-year in April, the smallest gain in 11 months, and Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko has a few ideas why that number has fallen. One reason for the slippage is from a large price spike during the housing recovery in February and April of 2013, according Kolko. Year-over-year changes in April 2014 no longer include these elevated months, dropping yearly asking price numbers.

In a survey of more than 2,000 adults, Trulia found an estimated 41 percent “would strongly or somewhat prefer” to buy a new single-family home over an existing one, assuming the prices were equal. Just more than one in five respondents—21 percent—said they would prefer an existing home, while 38 percent expressed no preference. Of course, while the survey set prices on a level field to gauge interest, that’s very rarely the case.

One way the federal government has accounted for local market differences is through the conforming loan limit: the maximum amount of a home loan that Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac can guarantee. However, according to Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko, this current system falls far short of reflecting the actual differences in local home prices and ends up favoring borrowers in lower-cost markets.

Has the housing market reached bubble status once again? The answer—at least, according to Trulia chief economist Jed Kolko—is both yes and no. In the company’s latest quarterly Bubble Watch report, Kolko estimates national home prices are still around 5 percent undervalued when examining long-term fundamentals like historical prices, incomes, and rents.