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Rising Home Prices Further Curtailed Affordability in Fall

S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P DJI) has released the latest results of its S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Indices, which found that for November 2021, home prices continued to increase across the U.S. Year-over-year, the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index reported an 18.8% annual gain in November 2021, down slightly from 19% in October 2021.

“For the past several months, home prices have been rising at a very high, but decelerating, rate. That trend continued in November 2021,” said Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. “The National Composite Index rose 18.8% from year-ago levels, and the 10- and 20-City Composites gained 16.8% and 18.3%, respectively. In all three cases, November’s gains were less than October’s. Despite this deceleration, it’s important to remember that November’s 18.8% was the sixth-highest reading in the 34 years covered by our data (the top five were the months immediately preceding gains in November).

The 10-City Composite annual increase came in at 16.8%, down from 17.2% in the previous month. The 20-City Composite posted an 18.3% year-over-year gain, down from 18.5% in the previous month.

“We are now in the early days of 2022 and real estate markets remain unseasonably active as buyers continue to pursue a relatively small number of for-sale homes in an effort to get ahead of sharply rising mortgage rates–up 46 basis points since the end of November 2021,” said George Ratiu, Manager of Economic Research at Realtor.com. “As a result, many first-time buyers are seeing their potential monthly payments soar by several hundred dollars, reducing their overall budget and limiting the number of available homes they can afford.”

Regionally, Phoenix, Tampa, and Miami reported the highest year-over-year gains among the 20 cities in November. Phoenix led the way with a 32.2% year-over-year price increase, followed by Tampa with a 29% increase and Miami with a 26.6% increase. Eleven of the 20 cities reported higher price increases in the year ending November 2021 versus the year ending October 2021.

“While the November S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller slowed for the third consecutive month—increasing 18.8% year-over-year, and down from the 19.03% increase the month prior—many markets continue to experience acceleration in annual gains,” said CoreLogic Deputy Chief Economist Selma Hepp. “More than half of the 20 markets reported by S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller had higher price growth in November, particularly warmer markets in Florida and the Southeast, as well as markets in Southwest. Additionally, higher tier price ranges have remained relatively more resistant to economic forces, mortgage rates and COVID-19-related demand changes continue to be magnet markets for many buyers. Given that these areas have also had the relatively largest gains in in-migration, pressure on prices has persisted and will likely remain over the coming year.”

Click here for more on the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller U.S. National Home Price NSA Index.

About Author: Eric C. Peck

Eric C. Peck has 20-plus years’ experience covering the mortgage industry, he most recently served as Editor-in-Chief for The Mortgage Press and National Mortgage Professional Magazine. Peck graduated from the New York Institute of Technology where he received his B.A. in Communication Arts/Media. After graduating, he began his professional career with Videography Magazine before landing in the mortgage space. Peck has edited three published books and has served as Copy Editor for Entrepreneur.com.

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