Tag Archives: Jobs

Despite recent gains, which some of us believe are more of a mirage than an oasis, the economy still isn't creating enough good-paying full-time jobs to drive a full recovery in the housing market. At the same time, stricter lending requirements--and a lending environment I believe is going to get more challenging before it gets easier--are the other major headwinds that could slow down housing. While most forecasts are calling for a slight uptick in purchase loans in 2014, it's easy to build a scenario that goes terribly wrong.

As prices continue rising in the new year--albeit at a slower pace--investors will begin to ease back from the purchase market, but repeat home buyers will be there to pick up the slack, according to Trulia's predictions. "2013 was the year of the investor, but 2014 will be the year of the repeat home buyer," said Jed Kolko, chief economist at Trulia. Other changes to the market in the new year include lower affordability, "less frenzied" home-buying, and a shift in the rental market from single-family homes to urban apartments.

Global economic growth will increase from 2.5 percent this year to 3.3 percent in the new year, with the U.S. economy growing 2.6 percent, up from 1.7 percent this year, according to IHS Chief Economist Nariman Behravesh and IHS Chief U.S. Economist Doug Handler. Europe's recovery "will proceed, but at a very sluggish pace," with growth reaching 0.8 percent, up from -0.4 percent this year. Meanwhile, the dollar will gain strength as the Fed tapers its stimulus while other central banks continue theirs, according to IHS.

Research experts at Jones Lang LaSalle (JLL) expect a "clear path to stronger performance" for commercial real estate (CRE) in 2014. Reviewing what they call "surprising upsides" in investment sales volume over the last year, JLL's top researchers say they expect the factors driving 2013's growth--an improving lender environment, heightened risk appetite, and the arrival of investors in secondary markets--are expected to continue to move the sector forward. As far as U.S.-specific growth is concerned: "It all comes down to jobs."

While the housing market is showing some signs of promise, a few major indicators continue to lag, according to the latest Trulia Housing Barometer.

Fixed mortgage rates moved down slightly this week, reflecting a lack of much solid news for markets to latch on to. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey shows the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) averaging 4.42 percent (0.7 point) for the week ending December 12, a decrease from 4.46 percent last week. The same time last year, the 30-year FRM averaged 3.32 percent. Bankrate.com reported even smaller changes in its weekly survey. According to the finance site, the 30-year fixed averaged 3.55 percent this week, unchanged from the last report.

An increasingly cautious outlook for the economy has put a crimp in the housing market's forward momentum, according to Fannie Mae's latest National Housing Survey. Doug Duncan, SVP and chief economist at Fannie Mae, said: "We continue to see caution as the defining feature of Americans' attitudes toward the economy and their personal financial situation. In this environment, the housing recovery is likely to improve, but only at a gradual pace."

The University of Michigan/Thomson Reuters Index of Consumer Sentiment climbed to a five-month high of 82.5 in a preliminary report, increasing more than seven points over November's final reading and beating a consensus forecast of 75.5. Both of the components measuring confidence in current and future conditions increased. The Current Conditions Index rose to its own five-month high of 97.9 from November's 88.0, while the expectations index increased to a four-month peak of 72.7 from 66.8.

Long-term mortgage rates saw a jump this week following better-than-expected economic reports. Freddie Mac released Thursday the results of its Primary Mortgage Market Survey, putting the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage (FRM) at a rate of 4.46 percent (0.5 point) for the week ending December 5, up from 4.29 percent last week. Frank Nothaft, VP and chief economist for Freddie Mac, pinned the increases on encouraging growth in private jobs and new home sales.

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index dropped two points to 70.4 in the most recent reading, the company reported. The decline follows a more substantial decrease in October stemming from the partial federal government shutdown. "Sentiment regarding current conditions was mixed, with consumers saying the job market had strengthened, while economic conditions had slowed," explained Lynn Franco, director of economic indicators at the Conference Board. "However, these sentiments did not carry over into the short-term outlook."