Tag Archives: Capital Economics

After dipping in April, the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index saw modest improvement in May as optimism for the job market grew. The index rebounded to 83.0 in the latest reading, up from a downwardly revised 81.7 in April, the group reported Tuesday.

In a preliminary report issued last week, Thomson Reuters and the University of Michigan reported a decline in their joint Index of Consumer Sentiment to a reading of 81.8 from April's final reading of 84.1. A large portion of the overall decline came from a decrease in the survey's Current Conditions Index, which may have suffered from concern over a slowing housing market.

According to the Commerce Department and HUD, privately owned housing starts last month were at an estimated seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.07 million, representing a 13.2 percent jump from March’s barely revised pace of 947,000. Unfortunately for the supply-constrained single-family market, most of that spike came in apartment buildings.

In its Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) reported a 3.6 percent rise in application volumes for the week ending May 9. In a significant turn from recent trends, refinances were entirely responsible for the bump in overall applications. Still, refinance application numbers remain down nearly 80 percent compared to last year.

According to monthly application data released by the Mortgage Bankers Association and compiled by Capital Economics, total application activity in April was down 4.8 percent month-over-month, slipping further from March’s 2.9 percent decline. The entirety of the decline came from another drop in refinance application volumes, which were down 10.8 percent over the month, the biggest drop so far this year.

While the sudden stop in economic growth in this year’s first quarter might have some market-watchers sending up red flags, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen isn’t especially concerned. One warning sign has caught her eye, however: housing. Faced with recent sales figures, the Fed chief admitted, “[T]he recent flattening out in housing activity could prove more protracted than currently expected rather than resuming its earlier pace of recovery.”

Consumer confidence reached a four-month high in April, according to the University of Michigan’s preliminary measure of consumer sentiment for the month. After taking a hit in March, the index rebounded to 82.6 in April, prompting one analytics firm to anticipate a possible return in consumer confidence to a long-term normal of 85. The university also measures current conditions and expectations, finding upticks in both this month.

Compiling weekly survey results from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), macroeconomic research firm Capital Economics calculated a 2.9 percent drop in total application volume in March following a meek 0.1 percent increase in February. On the home purchase side, applications came up an estimated 2.7 percent over March (1 percent in the final week) but remained down 16.8 percent year-over-year.

According to reports released Tuesday by the Census Bureau and HUD, new home sales in February ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 440,000, down 3.3 percent from the revised January rate of 455,000 (originally recorded at 468,000). It was the weakest sales pace since September 2013. Compared to February 2013, last month’s sales rate was down by about 5,000 (1.1 percent).

According to the Labor Department, the U.S. economy added 175,000 jobs in February, beating expectations after two weak months but still failing to impress. While more promising than December and January—which showed upwardly revised payroll growth of 84,000 and 129,000, respectively—February’s numbers still fell well short of 2013’s average monthly growth of 194,000.