Tag Archives: Capital Economics

As Fed officials hinted at more stimulus measures for the ailing economy, research consultancy Capital Economics released a note signaling that more trouble ahead for the housing sector could delay a recovery until 2014. Writing for the consultancy, senior U.S. economist Paul Dales painted a grim portrait of the housing economy, explaining that less confidence among consumers and tight lending standards contribute to the view that market conditions will keep a heel on the housing recovery until 2014.

Making good on promises by policymakers from both parties, Congress allowed the $729,750 threshold for conforming loans with federal guarantees to expire Saturday, pinching high-end borrowers in a marginal number of counties and potentially leaving a swath of new market share for private bankers. Homebuyers looking for more than $625,000 in financing for their mortgage loans will accordingly fall short of eligibility requirements needed for federal insurance.

The rocky economic landscape could give way to a smoother housing sector if recent home prices signal anything, with a major Standard & Poor├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔÇ×┬ós/Case-Shiller index revealing Tuesday a marginal uptick in numbers over July. Economists chalked up the gains to a seasonal boost and suggested more stability may be on the way for a troubled housing economy. The indices reflected a 0.9-percent boon for measures of activity across 10 and 20 major metropolitan cities, a consecutive four-month increase.

Despite the lure of record-low mortgage rates, fewer consumers stepped out from behind the fear of a global economic slowdown to purchase new homes, curtailing new sales by 2.3 percent month-over-month in August. Market watchers chalked up a six-month dearth to consumers wary about their job security, stock markets, and the threat of a new recession. The Census Bureau signaled a fallback to 295,000 housing units on a seasonally adjusted basis, down from 302,000 from July.

With the European debt crisis underway, lawmakers convened a hearing on Capitol Hill Thursday to address fears about systemic risks to the U.S. banking system as more euro zone markets falter. The verdict: billions of dollars in liquidity may face exposure to the European debt contagion ├â┬ó├óÔÇÜ┬¼├óÔé¼┼ô a reality that U.S. authorities should continue to monitor without overreacting. Sen. Mark Warner (D-Virginia) said that some $34 billion in U.S. liquidity may be in potential exposure to a wave of euro zone troubled assets.

Treasury special adviser Raj Date made headlines again after announcing Tuesday that the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau plans to finalize the ability-to-repay rule early next year. His remarks follow a series of other barnstorming speeches in the ramp-up for several rules. Once approved, the new rule, formerly proposed by the Federal Reserve, will broaden the scope of Regulation Z under Truth-in-Lending and prevent lenders from making loans to consumers without qualifying assets and income.

With fears on the rise about a Greek default, stocks for U.S. companies and lenders fell around midday Monday. Speaking with MReport, federal regulatory agencies downplayed the fears despite quarterly numbers that found an expansion in lending volume between wobbly euro zone and U.S. financial institutions over the first quarter. New worries about a spreading debt contagion arose over the weekend when European Union officials reached an impasse in bailout talks.

Mortgage application volume jumped from the previous week by 6.3 percent, reflecting the highly attractive plunge by interest rates to record lows, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Even so, the good news comes amid a fall in home valuations and cash buyer interest, which Capital Economics says will likely depress sales activity across the housing market. Frank Nothaft, VP and chief economist for Freddie Mac, spoke to MReport about the forces behind anemic demand for home purchases at the Five Star Conference and Expo in Dallas.

The surprise resignation of a key official at the European Central Bank sent stocks and shares plunging in markets across Europe and overseas, furthering fears about a global economic slowdown and the potential for sovereign defaults across the European Union. Sagging stocks doubled up woes for Bank of America, whose CEO, Brian Moynihan, announced plans for some 40,000 layoffs as the mortgage giant reassesses its capital position in the market and undertakes restructuring efforts, according to multiple news reports.

With refinancing activity continuing a backslide, the number of homebuyers filing mortgage applications waxed over last week, falling by 4.9 percent on a seasonally adjusted basis, according to a weekly survey by the Mortgage Bankers Association. The trade group recorded new lows for 30-year and 15-year loan contract interest rates. According to the MBA's Market Composite Index, a yardstick for mortgage loan applications nationally, numbers declined by a seasonally unadjusted 5.3 percent.